Estimating the return-on-investment from changes in employee health risks on the Dow Chemical Company's health care costs.

OBJECTIVE We sought to estimate the impact of corporate health-management and risk-reduction programs for The Dow Chemical Company by using a prospective return-on-investment (ROI) model. METHODS The risk and expenditure estimates were derived from multiple regression analyses showing relationships between worker demographics, health risks, and medical expenditures. RESULTS A "break-even" scenario would require Dow to reduce each of 10 population health risks by 0.17% points per year over the course of 10 years. More successful efforts at reducing health risks in the population would produce a more significant ROI for the company. CONCLUSIONS Findings from this study were incorporated into other components of a business case for health and productivity management, and these supported continued investments in health improvement programs designed to achieve risk reduction and cost savings.